Event
From Risk to Resilience: What climate change could cost the UK food system
The event
Climate change, geopolitics and the current economic system are already driving up the cost of food, but by how much, and where are we most exposed? A landmark climate risk assessment from IGD has modelled ten key commodities under three climate scenarios to 2050 and put a figure on it: up to £2.6 billion in additional costs under a business-as-usual pathway.
Imported fruit and vegetables face the greatest risk, with our dependence on a small number of climate-vulnerable sourcing regions representing a concentration of risk hiding in plain sight. But the picture isn’t all deficit: under an accelerated climate action scenario, UK wheat yields could actually improve, making a commercial case for investing in domestic productive capacity.
Given the heightened risk environment globally, how may businesses change their commercial models and transform their supply chains? Where should investment and policy effort be focused? How can we turn risk into a catalyst for building a more resilient and thriving food system?
This is the first in a new AFN webinar series on food system resilience. Building on the November 2025 webinar exploring how we can trust quantitative food system analysis, the conversation now turns to what happens when that kind of modelling meets one of the most pressing practical questions we face: the financial reality of climate risk across the food supply chain.
About Matt
Matthew Stoughton-Harris is Head of Resilience at IGD, leading work to help food and consumer goods businesses understand and respond to systemic risks across the supply chain. He works at the intersection of evidence, industry practice and policy, translating complex risk analysis into practical implications for sourcing, investment and resilience planning across the food system.
About Sarah (chair)
Sarah Bridle is a Director of the AFN Network+ and Professor of Food, Climate and Society in the Department of Environment and Geography at the University of York. Sarah researches the environmental impact of food, and also the vulnerability of our food system here in the UK. Sarah’s science book, Food and Climate Change – Without the Hot Air, investigates the climate impacts of different dietary choices. Sarah’s most recent publication maps out pathways to possible food crisis here in the UK.
About this webinar series
This webinar is part of a monthly series run by AFN Network+ which explores net zero in the UK agri-food system with leading movers and shakers. Expect deep and varied insight from across the sector, including farmers, scientists, policy analysts, community leaders, retailers, politicians, businesses and health professionals.
